Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays

● quote 33 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $220.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $439.8KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
72.5¢
YES
27.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection65Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority77Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$212.7K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 34 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$36.6K·2 wallets(1🐋)·$36.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.3K@ 61¢·0x263c…b2ae

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$138.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$138.2K
6h
+$108.4K
tracked
$212.7K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$36.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 77

Since latest large flow: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 33 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 41 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 34 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-27 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for August 20 at 1:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 54.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Tampa Bay Rays@ 61.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $131$532 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$138.2K
6h+$108.4K
24h+$108.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current72.5¢
VWAP 24h49.4¢▲ above by 23.1pp
VWAP 7d49.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$55.1K
50¢
$72.6K
45¢
$7.3K
40¢
$10.6K
35¢
$44.9K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$16.9K@ 57.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$27.8K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$22.8K@ 50.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$10.6K@ 41.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTampa Bay Rays (NO)$31.3K@ 61.0¢0x263c…b2ae🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafToronto Blue Jays$77.0K
BUY VWAP 48.2¢·6 fills
xifutloong3Toronto Blue Jays$36.6K
BUY VWAP 57.0¢·4 fills
0x263c…b2aeTampa Bay Rays$31.3K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.