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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5

● quote 1362 min ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $46.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $310.1KEvent: Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
52.0¢
YES
56.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly36Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets95Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:37 trades$155.6K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1388 min agoofficial metadata 1357 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $41.1K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$43.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$33.6K@ 56¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
−$97.4K
tracked
$155.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$41.1K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 1362 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1388 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 1357 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-15 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets, scheduled for August 15 at 4:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Washington Nationals and New York Mets combine to score 9 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 9, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf3 linked markets · $118.2K gross
0x5268…135d3 linked markets · $84.7K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $41.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Under@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h INVALIDATED -10.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 56.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Under@ 52.0¢1d ago
15m CONFIRMED +3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 55.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 12.5pp · near-book depth $423 → $7.6K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.6K
6h−$97.4K
24h−$146.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h45.7¢▲ above by 6.3pp
VWAP 7d45.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.6K
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$2
50¢
← now
$8
45¢
$50.7K
40¢
$101.3K
35¢
$863
30¢
$5
25¢
$9
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$33.6K@ 56.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYUnder (NO)$28.0K@ 56.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—1 day ago
BUYUnder (NO)$16.3K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—1 day ago
BUYUnder (NO)$26.0K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafUnder$67.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·3 fills
0x5268…135dUnder$34.3K
BUY VWAP 55.1¢·9 fills
SDTradingUnder$26.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Under$16.3K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.