Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote 15 min ago
SportsCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $148.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $841.3KEvent: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs
52.5¢
YES
47.5¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection47Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:110 trades$393.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$178.5K@ 58¢·Supremeleader75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$183.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$183.7K
6h
+$184.7K
tracked
$393.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$1.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 87% · priority 56

Since latest accumulation: -3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 15 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-20 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Team Liquid and Team Yandex in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Liquid" if Team Liquid win the match against Team Yandex. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Team Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 20, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 3h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $182.9K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $48.2K gross
CORGI82 linked markets · $37.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Team Liquid@ 57.0¢43m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Team Liquid@ 57.0¢43m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 43.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Liquid@ 58.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $708$471 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$183.7K
6h+$184.7K
24h+$182.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h56.5¢▼ below by 4.0pp
VWAP 7d56.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3.0K
55¢
$354.0K
50¢
← now
$93.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$30.9K@ 49.0¢
Djdjdjekekek0x6d20…a165
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$178.5K@ 57.8¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$21.7K@ 57.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$23.4K@ 57.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$12.0K@ 43.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Liquid (YES)$18.9K@ 56.0¢
Supremeleader750x5dab…22e1
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Yandex (NO)$26.1K@ 47.2¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Supremeleader75Team Liquid$243.9K
BUY VWAP 57.5¢·5 fills
DjdjdjekekekTeam Yandex$30.9K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
111111111115Team Yandex$27.2K
BUY VWAP 47.2¢·2 fills
CORGI8Team Yandex$27.1K
BUY VWAP 44.2¢·3 fills
0x1896…a7d6Team Liquid$13.3K
BUY VWAP 54.7¢·2 fills
0xdc16…1fadTeam Yandex$11.4K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.