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UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $529.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $503.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Main Card)
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:74 trades$139.1K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 42 min agoofficial metadata 16 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$1.2K·2 wallets·$3.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$15.4K@ 24¢·Sassy-Bucket

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-23 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mason Jones" if Mason Jones is officially declared the winner of the fight against MarQuel Mederos at UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues, scheduled for August 22, 2026. It will resolve to "MarQuel Mederos" if MarQuel Mederos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 5, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY MarQuel Mederos@ 24.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MarQuel Mederos@ 24.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $517 → $1.2K · 2s

Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.0K
6h−$31.4K
24h−$15.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h72.2¢▼ below by 72.2pp
VWAP 7d72.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$133.4K
70¢
$6.9K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$7.4K

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$12.1K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$11.8K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMason Jones (YES)$11.8K@ 77.0¢
rabbitfoot10x10a6…4d8b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$10.9K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$10.9K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMarQuel Mederos (NO)$15.4K@ 24.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMason Jones (YES)$11.8K@ 77.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketMarQuel Mederos$71.1K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·7 fills
rabbitfoot1Mason Jones$20.3K
BUY VWAP 76.6¢·2 fills
0x3dfb…abafMason Jones$15.2K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.