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Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 21?

● quote 1 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $69.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $224.9KEvent: Ethereum above ___ on August 21?
0.3¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$61.0K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 76 min agoofficial metadata 52s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $110·2 wallets·$17.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$10.0K@ 100¢·0x91df…68c1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$31.1K
tracked
$61.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$110 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 76 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-21 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf705…3ca74 linked markets · $61.4K gross
0x06dc…45244 linked markets · $25.0K gross
0xf70e…81df2 linked markets · $6.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO UP 6.6pp · near-book depth $5.6K → $53.7K · 15s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$31.1K
24h−$38.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.3¢
VWAP 24h15.3¢▼ below by 15.0pp
VWAP 7d15.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$44
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.1K
55¢
$176
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$3.3K
40¢
$78
35¢
$3.0K
30¢
$10.7K
25¢
$577
20¢
$1.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$3.5K
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$34.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x91df…68c1No$16.0K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·3 fills
0xad82…3df1No$11.7K
BUY VWAP 99.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.