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Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?

● quote 312 min ago
Crypto→Closes: 4 daysLiquidity: $56.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $85.0KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit August 17-23?
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection59Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution23Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:12 trades$41.9K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 324 min agoofficial metadata 302 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$18.4K@ 92¢·0x751a…9ea1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$24.8K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$24.8K
6h
+$24.8K
tracked
$41.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 312 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 324 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 302 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-24 04:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 100.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$24.8K
6h+$24.8K
24h+$17.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h68.8¢▲ above by 31.1pp
VWAP 7d66.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.7K
90¢
$19.8K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.7K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.9K
35¢
$4.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$7.0K
0¢
$1.3K

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$18.4K@ 92.2¢0x751a…9ea1🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x751a…9ea1Yes$18.4K
BUY VWAP 92.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.