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Will Fulham FC win on 2026-08-30?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 31 minutesLiquidity: $141.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Sunderland AFC vs. Fulham FC
27.0¢
YES
73.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection54Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$656.1K tracked18% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 24s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$255.9K@ 72¢·3edmond.dantes

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: $352.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$352.0K
6h
−$555.0K
tracked
$656.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $5.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 81% · priority 0

Since latest position change: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.premierleague.com/
Outcome meaning

•If Fulham FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 30, 2026 If Fulham FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
3edmond.dantes2 linked markets · $1.8M gross
Flaznorp3 linked markets · $20.6K gross
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $16.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 72.0¢44m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 72.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 72.0¢59m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 30.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $9.9K → $10.9K · 50s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $352.0K
6hNO · $555.0K
24hNO · $555.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current27.0¢
VWAP 24h28.7¢▼ below by 1.7pp
VWAP 7d28.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$167.1K
25¢
← now
$490.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.4K@ 72.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$80.0K@ 72.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$255.9K@ 72.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYYES$47.9K@ 30.0¢
Exterminatormoney0xb853…0d33
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$133.7K@ 71.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$109.6K@ 70.0¢
3edmond.dantes0x983e…6748
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

3edmond.dantesNo$591.6K
BUY VWAP 71.4¢·5 fills
ExterminatormoneyYes$47.9K
BUY VWAP 30.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.