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Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $204.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $612.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
0.1¢
M80
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:143 trades$311.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $94.9K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$96.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$129.2K@ 75¢·0xd570…e4f8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Aurora Gaming pressure: $8.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$8.5K
6h
−$194.4K
tracked
$311.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $94.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +24.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 24.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Aurora Gaming or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 18:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against M80.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between M80 and Aurora Gaming in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against M80. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xd570…e4f82 linked markets · $146.2K gross
0x29b5…cc6c3 linked markets · $59.2K gross
backback3 linked markets · $40.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Aurora Gaming1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Aurora Gaming@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Aurora Gaming@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Aurora Gaming@ 76.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor M80; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $8.5K
6hAurora Gaming · $194.4K
24hAurora Gaming · $218.7K

M80 price VWAP

Volume-weighted M80 price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary M80 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h23.0¢▼ below by 22.9pp
VWAP 7d23.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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M80 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$209.5K
20¢
$69.3K
15¢
$153
10¢
$15.0K
5¢
$2.1K
0¢
← now
$14.9K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$53.2K@ 76.0¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$129.2K@ 75.0¢0xd570…e4f8🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYM80$10.9K@ 26.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xd570…e4f8Aurora Gaming$129.2K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill
Sisyphus.Aurora Gaming$53.2K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
0x29b5…cc6cAurora Gaming$33.9K
BUY VWAP 74.4¢·17 fills
CORGI8M80$10.9K
BUY VWAP 26.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.