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Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)

● quote 15s ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $63.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.0KEvent: FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Rosenborg BK - More Markets
33.0¢
FK Bodø/Glimt
67.0¢
Rosenborg BK
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets43Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:18 trades$62.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 31 min agoofficial metadata 12s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rosenborg BK · $21.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$50.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRosenborg BK$23.1K@ 49¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$7
6h
−$13.7K
tracked
$62.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Rosenborg BK · $21.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 31 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 12:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.eliteserien.no/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FK Bodø/Glimt" if FK Bodø/Glimt win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rosenborg BK".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for August 30 at 8:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "FK Bodø/Glimt" if FK Bodø/Glimt win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Rosenborg BK". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on eliteserien.no. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rosenborg BK@ 49.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Rosenborg BK UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $2.8K → $18 · 117s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FK Bodø/Glimt; negative values favor Rosenborg BK. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hRosenborg BK · $7
6hRosenborg BK · $13.7K
24hRosenborg BK · $13.7K

FK Bodø/Glimt price VWAP

Volume-weighted FK Bodø/Glimt price. Rosenborg BK fills are converted to the complementary FK Bodø/Glimt probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.0¢
VWAP 24h51.3¢▼ below by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d51.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FK Bodø/Glimt price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$62.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRosenborg BK$23.1K@ 49.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Rosenborg BK$27.9K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026FK Bodø/Glimt$14.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.