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Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $532.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $553.4KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
100.0¢
Natus Vincere
0.1¢
M80
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets38Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$236.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 42s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $44.8K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$119.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$31.8K@ 55¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

M80 pressure: $32.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$32.5K
6h
+$40.2K
tracked
$236.8K

14 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $44.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -13.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from M80 or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against M80.

•This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win Map 1 against Natus Vincere.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Natus Vincere and M80 in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Map 1 against M80. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win Map 1 against Natus Vincere. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $460.2K gross
0xf559…f4622 linked markets · $36.9K gross
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f3 linked markets · $33.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY M80@ 14.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: M80 DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.5K → $1.1K · 15s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor M80. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hM80 · $32.5K
6hNatus Vincere · $40.2K
24hNatus Vincere · $40.2K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. M80 fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h72.8¢▲ above by 27.2pp
VWAP 7d72.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$74.3K
90¢
$2.8K
85¢
$6.1K
80¢
$6.4K
75¢
$805
70¢
$3.0K
65¢
$22.1K
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$116.0K
50¢
$1.7K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$11.8K@ 55.0¢
ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNatus Vincere$31.8K@ 55.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Natus Vincere$31.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill
DjdjdjekekekM80$17.5K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·5 fills
ethBELIVERNatus Vincere$11.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.