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Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5)

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $79.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $71.2KEvent: Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
53.5¢
Natus Vincere
46.5¢
M80
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection50Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$28.4K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 55s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Natus Vincere · $9.4K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$24.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$10.0K@ 56¢·0xf559…f462

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Natus Vincere SETUP
What the tape says

Natus Vincere pressure: $14.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.3K
6h
+$13.6K
tracked
$28.4K

2 verified profitable wallets: Natus Vincere · $9.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Natus Vincere or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-26 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Natus Vincere and M80 in the BLAST Open Porto Group A, initially scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere wins 2 or more maps than M80 in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "M80". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xb3f8…e0b12 linked markets · $140 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Natus Vincere@ 55.0¢7m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Natus Vincere; negative values favor M80. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNatus Vincere · $14.3K
6hNatus Vincere · $13.6K
24hNatus Vincere · $13.6K

Natus Vincere price VWAP

Volume-weighted Natus Vincere price. M80 fills are converted to the complementary Natus Vincere probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current53.5¢
VWAP 24h55.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d55.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Natus Vincere price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$28.3K
50¢
← now
$12
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNatus Vincere$10.0K@ 56.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—12 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf559…f462Natus Vincere$16.7K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.