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Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2026-08-22?

Geopolitics→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $195.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $197.6KEvent: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich
15.0¢
YES payout
85.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $7.0K net·8 wallets·$18.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$6.3K@ 16¢·Bigggggggg

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-22 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•If Borussia Dortmund wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 22, 2026 If Borussia Dortmund wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tennischamp2 linked markets · $41.0K gross
swisstony3 linked markets · $35.6K gross
UpTheBlues3 linked markets · $29.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $103
6hNO · $27.5K
24hNO · $27.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current15.0¢
VWAP 24h10.9¢▲ above by 4.1pp
VWAP 7d10.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
← now
$21.9K
10¢
$5.0K
5¢
$385
0¢
$12.1K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0b1feNo$10.3K
BUY VWAP 85.5¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.