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Chargers vs. Bills: O/U 50.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $223.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $130.5KEvent: Chargers vs. Bills
47.5¢
Over
52.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$63.0K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 48%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 98 min agoofficial metadata 25s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Under · $51.2K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$51.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$51.2K@ 53¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$44.9K
tracked
$63.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: Under · $51.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 98 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Chargers and Bills combine to score 51 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 51, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Chargers and Bills combine to score 51 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 51, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $126.3K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $60.9K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $36.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 53.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $0
6hUnder · $44.9K
24hUnder · $44.9K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d47.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$63.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$51.2K@ 52.6¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Bills (-7.5)
47.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-14.5)
27.5¢$207.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chargers vs. Bills
24.5¢$192.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
63.5¢$138.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
45.5¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
51.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
84.5¢$863.8Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempUnder$51.2K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.