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Chargers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5

Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: —Event: Chargers vs. Bills
50.0¢
Over
50.0¢
Under
98.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:1 trades$20.8K tracked100% 🐋source coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$20.8K@ 98¢·0x1004…43e8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $20.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.8K
6h
−$20.8K
tracked
$20.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
98.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 98.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the Chargers score 3 or more touchdowns in this game.

•This market will resolve to "Under" if the Chargers score fewer than 3 touchdowns.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game between Chargers and Bills, scheduled for September 27 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Chargers score 3 or more touchdowns in this game. This market will resolve to "Under" if the Chargers score fewer than 3 touchdowns. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $126.3K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $60.9K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $36.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $20.8K
6hUnder · $20.8K
24hUnder · $20.8K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.0¢
VWAP 24h2.0¢▲ above by 48.0pp
VWAP 7d2.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$20.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$20.8K@ 98.0¢0x1004…43e8🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Spread: Bills (-7.5)
47.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-14.5)
27.5¢$207.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chargers vs. Bills
24.5¢$192.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
63.5¢$138.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chargers vs. Bills: O/U 50.5
47.5¢$130.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)
45.5¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
51.5¢$1.0Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
84.5¢$863.8Kpriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1004…43e8Under$20.8K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.