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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $242.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $353.1KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
43.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates
57.0¢
San Diego Padres
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets58Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$185.0K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 52%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:San Diego Padres · $20.6K net·5 wallets·$35.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres$55.0K@ 56¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Pittsburgh Pirates SETUP
What the tape says

Pittsburgh Pirates pressure: $9.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.5K
6h
−$139.5K
tracked
$185.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: San Diego Padres · $20.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 88% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pittsburgh Pirates or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-02 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game.

•This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 25 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY San Diego Padres39m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY San Diego Padres@ 56.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Pittsburgh Pirates DOWN 7.0pp · near-book depth $18.3K → $30 · 34s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh Pirates; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPittsburgh Pirates · $9.5K
6hSan Diego Padres · $139.5K
24hSan Diego Padres · $141.0K

Pittsburgh Pirates price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh Pirates probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.0¢
VWAP 24h44.2¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d44.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh Pirates price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$55.5K
40¢
← now
$124.0K
35¢
$5.4K
30¢
$95
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres$55.0K@ 56.0¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$25.0K@ 56.0¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYSan Diego Padres$25.0K@ 55.9¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999San Diego Padres$55.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
KosherlocksSan Diego Padres$50.0K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardSan Diego Padres$17.8K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·5 fills
JeffplatterPittsburgh Pirates$10.3K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.