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Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $334.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $499.1KEvent: Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez
0.1¢
Hugo Grenier
100.0¢
Sebastian Baez
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection39Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets48Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution95Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$212.1K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Sebastian Baez · $29.4K net·8 wallets·$59.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSebastian Baez$25.0K@ 100¢·0xAlikz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Sebastian Baez pressure: $70.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$70.0K
6h
−$6.1K
tracked
$212.1K

8 verified profitable wallets: Sebastian Baez · $29.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -12.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Sebastian Baez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Grenier and Sebastian Baez in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Grenier' if Hugo Grenier advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Hugo Grenier. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Hugo Grenier@ 13.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -10.0pp1h CONFIRMED +8.9pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Hugo Grenier@ 27.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Hugo Grenier@ 27.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -22.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.8pp
Latest book event: Hugo Grenier UP 6.9pp · near-book depth $102 → $1.6K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hugo Grenier; negative values favor Sebastian Baez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSebastian Baez · $70.0K
6hSebastian Baez · $6.1K
24hSebastian Baez · $11.1K

Hugo Grenier price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hugo Grenier price. Sebastian Baez fills are converted to the complementary Hugo Grenier probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h20.4¢▼ below by 20.3pp
VWAP 7d20.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hugo Grenier price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$9.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$39.2K
25¢
$28.9K
20¢
$30.7K
15¢
$1.6K
10¢
$15.2K
5¢
$291
0¢
← now
$86.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSebastian Baez$25.0K@ 99.9¢
0xAlikz0x2037…473d
🐋—less than a minute ago
BUYSebastian Baez$15.6K@ 95.3¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYSebastian Baez$16.1K@ 95.9¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYHugo Grenier$16.0K@ 33.5¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHugo Grenier$10.6K@ 33.0¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHugo Grenier$10.3K@ 29.4¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHugo Grenier$10.7K@ 28.5¢
11vsldfdsgfkjgos0x3970…44ce
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

11vsldfdsgfkjgosHugo Grenier$51.6K
BUY VWAP 31.4¢·5 fills
hd777Sebastian Baez$35.0K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·3 fills
0xAlikzSebastian Baez$25.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
swisstonySebastian Baez$20.4K
BUY VWAP 96.7¢·6 fills
HomeRunHazardSebastian Baez$11.8K
BUY VWAP 85.7¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Hugo Grenier$10.2K
BUY VWAP 27.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.