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Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

● quote just now
Geopolitics→Closes: 9 daysLiquidity: $119.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $312.2KEvent: Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
96.4¢
YES
3.6¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection29Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets29Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:98 trades$93.5K trackedsource coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$6.5K@ 94¢·tsybka

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $26.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$26.7K
6h
+$65.4K
tracked
$93.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $238 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 58

Since latest large flow: -0.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.8¢16m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 96.9¢19m ago
15m STALLED -0.8pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.8¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.7pp1h STALLED -0.5pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 91.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.2pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $3.4K → $6.9K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $26.7K
6hYES · $65.4K
24hYES · $60.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.4¢
VWAP 24h85.8¢▲ above by 10.6pp
VWAP 7d79.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$45.2K
90¢
$20.4K
85¢
$0
80¢
$3.6K
75¢
$4.3K
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$90
60¢
$6.7K
55¢
$3.4K
50¢
$2.0K
45¢
$6.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$6.8K
10¢
$1.8K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tsybkaYes$54.6K
BUY VWAP 88.7¢·19 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.