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Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?

● quote 5 min ago
Science→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $10.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $55.7KEvent: Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
3.4¢
YES
96.6¢
NO
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution58Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:5 trades$7.4K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 51 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$3.5K@ 98¢·Raskell

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$2
6h
−$3.5K
tracked
$7.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 51 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-01 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en
Outcome meaning

•Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.

•A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.

Read full resolution rules

Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline. A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting. JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Territorial definitions: "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $2
6hNO · $3.5K
24hNO · $4.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.4¢
VWAP 24h31.8¢▼ below by 28.4pp
VWAP 7d33.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.5K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$1.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$2
0¢
← now
$3.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.