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Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?

● quote 1 min ago
Politics→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $19.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $60.9KEvent: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?
97.0¢
SPD
2.9¢
Grüne
2.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%
24h sample:9 trades$15.9K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSPD$3.4K@ 60¢·0x629b…995a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

SPD pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$2.3K
tracked
$15.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.9¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from SPD or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.

•This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor SPD; negative values favor Grüne. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSPD · $1.1K
6hSPD · $2.3K
24hSPD · $3.4K

SPD price VWAP

Volume-weighted SPD price. Grüne fills are converted to the complementary SPD probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.0¢
VWAP 24h77.1¢▲ above by 20.0pp
VWAP 7d77.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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SPD price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.2K
90¢
$3.8K
85¢
$2.6K
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$3.4K
50¢
$3.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.