Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
SPD pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.
Data confidence 57% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from SPD or execution deteriorates.
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
•This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Outcome Price History
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
SPD price VWAP
Largest holders
SPD price Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
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Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.