Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs

● quote just now
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $320.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $599.3KEvent: Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs
42.5¢
YES
57.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection7Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:96 trades$294.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 58s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $8.9K·6 wallets·$27.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoomBoys (NO)$188.0K@ 63¢·vd777bond

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$21.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.7K
6h
−$245.7K
tracked
$294.6K

6 verified profitable wallets: −$8.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 87% · priority 53

Since latest large flow: -5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 11:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and BoomBoys in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against BoomBoys. This market will resolve to "BoomBoys" if BoomBoys win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
vd777bond2 linked markets · $215.6K gross
0xe16d…5e303 linked markets · $128.0K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $88.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY BoomBoys@ 63.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 3.5pp · near-book depth $19.1K$2.4K · 23s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$21.7K
6h$245.7K
24h$239.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h36.3¢▲ above by 6.2pp
VWAP 7d36.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$20.2K
35¢
$250.0K
30¢
$5.4K
25¢
$6.7K
20¢
$5.7K
15¢
$2.1K
10¢
$4.6K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBoomBoys (NO)$188.0K@ 63.3¢
vd777bond0xaabe…9158
🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBoomBoys (NO)$10.1K@ 62.0¢
Bettong0x63bc…92c5
🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

vd777bondBoomBoys$188.0K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·1 fill
BettongBoomBoys$10.1K
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.