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Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)

● quote 9 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $251.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $117.5KEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:29 trades$34.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.3K·2 wallets·$1.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$12.0K@ 48¢·acorp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$5.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$5.9K
6h
+$12.1K
tracked
$34.0K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 9 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 14:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket final match between TEAM VISION and Team Yandex in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION wins 2 or more games than Team Yandex in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Team Yandex". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 22, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Djdjdjekekek2 linked markets · $1.6M gross
vd777bond3 linked markets · $779.9K gross
1111111111153 linked markets · $261.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $5 → $5 · 56s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$5.9K
6h+$12.1K
24h+$27.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h38.3¢▼ below by 38.3pp
VWAP 7d38.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$23.9K
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$319
30¢
$90
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1
10¢
$11
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$5.9K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$12.0K@ 48.0¢
acorp0x99e4…e4c4
🐋—about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

acorpTEAM VISION$12.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
0x4049…aeaaTEAM VISION$10.0K
BUY VWAP 46.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.