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Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $155.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $104.4KEvent: Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty
63.5¢
YES
36.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly84Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets11Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:29 trades$26.0K trackedsource coverage 25%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$327·3 wallets·$3.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIndiana Fever (NO)$7.5K@ 53¢·Kingdmandan

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$635
6h
−$2.5K
tracked
$26.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$327 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-22 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wnba.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 22 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Liberty" if the New York Liberty win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Indiana Fever". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Indiana Fever". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kingdmandan2 linked markets · $15.0K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $13.0K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $10.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $978 → $926 · 49s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$635
6h−$2.5K
24h−$2.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current63.5¢
VWAP 24h47.7¢▲ above by 15.8pp
VWAP 7d47.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
← now
$0
55¢
$3
50¢
$7.4K
45¢
$15.7K
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.