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Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5)

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $21.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $283.9KEvent: Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
73.0¢
Spirit
30.0¢
FUT Esports
25.0¢
Spread
anomaly96Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets89Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution14Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:52 trades$112.0K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:FUT Esports · $16.6K net·3 wallets(1🐋)·$18.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFUT Esports$42.6K@ 44¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$506
6h
−$41.6K
tracked
$112.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: FUT Esports · $16.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
25.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 25.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 18:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than FUT Esports in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FUT Esports".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand final match between FUT Esports and Spirit in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit wins 2 or more maps than FUT Esports in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FUT Esports". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 23, 2026 at 7:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f5 linked markets · $299.8K gross
1111111111152 linked markets · $166.3K gross
0x0063…2dd24 linked markets · $137.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY FUT Esports@ 44.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Spirit UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $249 → $13.1K · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor FUT Esports. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFUT Esports · $506
6hFUT Esports · $41.6K
24hFUT Esports · $51.3K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. FUT Esports fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current73.0¢
VWAP 24h52.2¢▲ above by 20.8pp
VWAP 7d52.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$1.3K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$92.0K
50¢
$44
45¢
$48
40¢
$30
35¢
$17
30¢
$15.5K
25¢
$1.3K
20¢
$8
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.8K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFUT Esports$42.6K@ 43.9¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYFUT Esports$12.3K@ 44.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 8 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115FUT Esports$51.9K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462FUT Esports$12.3K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.