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UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 45s ago
Sports→Closes: about 22 hoursLiquidity: $95.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.5KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)
56.5¢
Ding Meng
43.5¢
Cameron Nelson
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly14Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$23.1K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ding Meng · $2.7K net·3 wallets·$2.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCameron Nelson$10.0K@ 43¢·Kosherlocks

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$30
6h
−$28
tracked
$23.1K

3 verified profitable wallets: Ding Meng · $2.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 22h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Ding Meng" if Ding Meng is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cameron Nelson at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Cameron Nelson" if Cameron Nelson is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Ding Meng" if Ding Meng is officially declared the winner of the fight against Cameron Nelson at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026. It will resolve to "Cameron Nelson" if Cameron Nelson is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cameron Nelson@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ding Meng; negative values favor Cameron Nelson. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCameron Nelson · $30
6hCameron Nelson · $28
24hCameron Nelson · $11.9K

Ding Meng price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ding Meng price. Cameron Nelson fills are converted to the complementary Ding Meng probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h57.6¢▼ below by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d56.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ding Meng price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$30.2K
50¢
$4.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCameron Nelson$10.0K@ 42.6¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

KosherlocksCameron Nelson$15.0K
BUY VWAP 43.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.