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Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $204.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.6MEvent: Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs
91.5¢
YES
8.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets7Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority43Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 19 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:875 trades$994.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 48s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$15.4K·19 wallets(2🐋)·$176.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$30.2K@ 52¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$26.9K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$26.9K
6h
−$25.8K
tracked
$994.5K

19 verified profitable wallets: +$15.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 43

Since latest liquidity absorption: -32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-23 12:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand final match between TEAM VISION and Team Spirit in the The International Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 23, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "TEAM VISION" if TEAM VISION win Game 2 against Team Spirit. This market will resolve to "Team Spirit" if Team Spirit win Game 2 against TEAM VISION. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 6, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 23, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
vtcchampion523 linked markets · $163.8K gross
Hdisllbsj2 linked markets · $86.3K gross
PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTR2 linked markets · $80.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY YES13m ago
Outcome checks pending
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Team Spirit@ 41.0¢17m ago
15m INVALIDATED -35.0pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY YES@ 60.0¢19m ago
15m CONFIRMED +33.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY TEAM VISION22m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: NO DOWN 11.5pp · near-book depth $171 → $350 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$26.9K
6h−$25.8K
24h−$25.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current91.5¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▲ above by 44.5pp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$3.2K
90¢
← now
$14.2K
85¢
$55.8K
80¢
$21.1K
75¢
$16.9K
70¢
$20.3K
65¢
$17.6K
60¢
$32.1K
55¢
$96.9K
50¢
$291.6K
45¢
$43.6K
40¢
$35.1K
35¢
$50.4K
30¢
$36.8K
25¢
$130.1K
20¢
$100.2K
15¢
$28.4K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$11.1K@ 87.5¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$10.2K@ 81.9¢
fkcvffcjt0x67ac…edf1
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$13.8K@ 72.0¢
invorser0x84fb…675e
🐋—37 minutes ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$15.3K@ 51.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$11.4K@ 48.9¢
GEAEW0x88c3…bea3
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$30.2K@ 52.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$10.0K@ 51.0¢0xe16d…5e30🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTeam Spirit (NO)$11.2K@ 50.0¢
waterberry0x3342…f908
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTEAM VISION (YES)$21.1K@ 56.4¢
Hdisllbsj0x2a21…9853
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8TEAM VISION$30.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xe16d…5e30TEAM VISION$28.0K
BUY VWAP 51.1¢·4 fills
0xf201…527eTEAM VISION$27.8K
BUY VWAP 40.1¢·8 fills
HdisllbsjTEAM VISION$26.4K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·2 fills
PIKALEVSKIY-MONSTRTeam Spirit$25.0K
BUY VWAP 55.6¢·7 fills
fkcvffcjtTEAM VISION$25.0K
BUY VWAP 65.6¢·5 fills
fkcvffcjtTeam Spirit$24.3K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·4 fills
gxxyyTeam Spirit$24.0K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·18 fills
invorserTeam Spirit$23.4K
BUY VWAP 72.3¢·4 fills
catbusinessTeam Spirit$20.6K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·7 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.