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Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)

Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $630Official 24h Vol: —Event: FC Schalke 04 vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets
30.5¢
FC Schalke 04
69.5¢
FC Bayern München
53.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution2Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$19.9K trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 513 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFC Bayern München$9.9K@ 96¢·0x4247…91c4

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$19.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
53.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 513 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 53.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-05 16:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "FC Schalke 04" if FC Schalke 04 win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FC Bayern München".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for September 5 at 12:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Schalke 04" if FC Schalke 04 win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "FC Bayern München". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on bundesliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor FC Schalke 04; negative values favor FC Bayern München. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hFC Schalke 04 · $0
6hFC Schalke 04 · $0
24hFC Bayern München · $19.9K

FC Schalke 04 price VWAP

Volume-weighted FC Schalke 04 price. FC Bayern München fills are converted to the complementary FC Schalke 04 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h4.0¢▲ above by 26.5pp
VWAP 7d4.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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FC Schalke 04 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$19.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4247…91c4FC Bayern München$19.9K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.