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Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $174.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $68.4KEvent: LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
46.5¢
Top Esports
53.5¢
LGD Gaming
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$20.5K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTop Esports$10.9K@ 46¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$4
6h
+$3.3K
tracked
$20.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: LGD Gaming · $2.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-29 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports wins 2 or more games than LGD Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LGD Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Top Esports and LGD Gaming in the LPL Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports wins 2 or more games than LGD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LGD Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Top Esports; negative values favor LGD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTop Esports · $4
6hTop Esports · $3.3K
24hTop Esports · $15.5K

Top Esports price VWAP

Volume-weighted Top Esports price. LGD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Top Esports probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current46.5¢
VWAP 24h46.4¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d46.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Top Esports price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$24.7K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTop Esports$10.9K@ 46.3¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 11 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Top Esports$10.9K
BUY VWAP 46.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.