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Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Sports→Settlement: San Diego PadresLiquidity: $39.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $52.9KEvent: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
0.0¢
Pittsburgh Pirates payout
100.0¢
San Diego Padres payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:6 trades$22.0K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 508 min agoofficial metadata 125 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPittsburgh Pirates$9.1K@ 36¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome San Diego Padres. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-25 01:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego Padres". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "San Diego Padres".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, scheduled for August 24 at 9:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "San Diego Padres". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "San Diego Padres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $36.5K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $30.0K gross
IdentityV2 linked markets · $28.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Pittsburgh Pirates DOWN 5.5pp · near-book depth $9 → $61 · 88s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pittsburgh Pirates; negative values favor San Diego Padres. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPittsburgh Pirates · $39
6hSan Diego Padres · $5.7K
24hPittsburgh Pirates · $3.4K

Pittsburgh Pirates price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pittsburgh Pirates price. San Diego Padres fills are converted to the complementary Pittsburgh Pirates probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h32.1¢▼ below by 32.1pp
VWAP 7d32.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pittsburgh Pirates price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$10.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$11.3K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$45

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.