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US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Sports→Settlement: Luka PavlovicLiquidity: $249.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $385.8KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Juan Pablo Varillas
100.0¢
Luka Pavlovic payout
0.0¢
Juan Pablo Varillas payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:142 trades$144.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 63 min agoofficial metadata 30 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Pablo Varillas · $21.9K net·8 wallets(1🐋)·$65.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$15.0K@ 93¢·ssj3

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Luka Pavlovic. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-31 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luka Pavlovic and Juan Pablo Varillas in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luka Pavlovic' if Luka Pavlovic advances against Juan Pablo Varillas. This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Luka Pavlovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Luka Pavlovic@ 95.5¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Juan Pablo Varillas DOWN 7.1pp · near-book depth $12 → $258 · 4s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luka Pavlovic; negative values favor Juan Pablo Varillas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJuan Pablo Varillas · $29.9K
6hJuan Pablo Varillas · $36.0K
24hJuan Pablo Varillas · $33.4K

Luka Pavlovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luka Pavlovic price. Juan Pablo Varillas fills are converted to the complementary Luka Pavlovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h50.6¢▲ above by 49.4pp
VWAP 7d50.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luka Pavlovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$19.2K
90¢
$6.0K
85¢
$7.9K
80¢
$11.5K
75¢
$4.1K
70¢
$7.3K
65¢
$5.7K
60¢
$7.5K
55¢
$8
50¢
$7.7K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
$167
35¢
$45
30¢
$2.0K
25¢
$9.2K
20¢
$9.8K
15¢
$9.4K
10¢
$14.7K
5¢
$20.9K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLuka Pavlovic$10.4K@ 99.9¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuka Pavlovic$10.0K@ 84.2¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYJuan Pablo Varillas$15.0K@ 93.5¢
ssj30x1a95…3a16
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ssj3Luka Pavlovic$16.0K
BUY VWAP 85.2¢·2 fills
swisstonyJuan Pablo Varillas$15.1K
BUY VWAP 86.4¢·11 fills
ssj3Juan Pablo Varillas$15.0K
BUY VWAP 93.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.