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Carbajal vs. Cosano: Match O/U 23.5

Sports→Settlement: OverLiquidity: $92.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $441.4KEvent: ITF M25 Oviedo Men: Alejandro Garcia Carbajal vs Javier Barranco Cosano
100.0¢
Over payout
0.0¢
Under payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:72 trades$132.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 35 min agoofficial metadata 27 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $22.6K net·3 wallets·$22.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver$14.1K@ 94¢·CoinTrick

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Over. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-01 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Garcia Carbajal and Javier Barranco Cosano in the ITF M25 Oviedo Men, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed equals or exceeds 24. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." All tiebreaks, including any Champions/Super tiebreak, count as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before completion, or if the match has not been completed by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ITF statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
pelik4 linked markets · $117.7K gross
CoinTrick3 linked markets · $51.8K gross
novason14 linked markets · $39.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 9.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.7pp1h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY Under@ 16.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -15.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Over DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $70.7K → $78.3K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $41.2K
6hOver · $40.2K
24hOver · $40.2K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h89.2¢▲ above by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d89.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$39.4K
90¢
$23.1K
85¢
$30.1K
80¢
$16.1K
75¢
$9.6K
70¢
$4.7K
65¢
$9.4K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYOver$14.1K@ 94.0¢
CoinTrick0x731a…033f
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

novason1Under$17.7K
BUY VWAP 16.8¢·8 fills
CoinTrickOver$14.1K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.