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Spread: 49ers (-2.5)

● quote 27s ago
Sports→Closes: 1 dayLiquidity: $195.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $9.1KEvent: Broncos vs. 49ers
52.5¢
49ers
47.5¢
Broncos
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection75Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$82.6K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 17 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Broncos · $1.0K net·2 wallets·$1.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUY49ers$62.0K@ 52¢·mooseborzoii

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

49ers pressure: $62.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$62.1K
6h
+$62.2K
tracked
$82.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Broncos · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from 49ers or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-04 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Broncos".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY 49ers@ 53.0¢18m ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor 49ers; negative values favor Broncos. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h49ers · $62.1K
6h49ers · $62.2K
24h49ers · $73.9K

49ers price VWAP

Volume-weighted 49ers price. Broncos fills are converted to the complementary 49ers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h51.7¢▲ above by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d51.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

49ers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$83.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUY49ers$62.0K@ 52.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUY49ers$16.1K@ 51.0¢
mooseborzoii0x1f3a…895d
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoii49ers$78.1K
BUY VWAP 51.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.