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Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $338.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.8KEvent: Augsburg: Cezar Cretu vs Miguel Damas
74.5¢
Cezar Cretu
25.5¢
Miguel Damas
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection82Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$25.6K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 29s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCezar Cretu$10.0K@ 49¢·Jeffplatter

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Cezar Cretu SETUP
What the tape says

Cezar Cretu pressure: $21.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$21.0K
6h
+$21.0K
tracked
$25.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Cezar Cretu · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cezar Cretu or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-02 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cezar Cretu and Miguel Damas in the Augsburg, originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cezar Cretu' if Cezar Cretu advances against Miguel Damas. This market will resolve to 'Miguel Damas' if Miguel Damas advances against Cezar Cretu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Cezar Cretu21m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cezar Cretu@ 71.0¢24m ago
15m CONFIRMED +10.0pp
Latest book event: Miguel Damas UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $20.1K → $4.0K · 85s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cezar Cretu; negative values favor Miguel Damas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCezar Cretu · $21.0K
6hCezar Cretu · $21.0K
24hCezar Cretu · $21.0K

Cezar Cretu price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cezar Cretu price. Miguel Damas fills are converted to the complementary Cezar Cretu probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h53.8¢▲ above by 20.7pp
VWAP 7d53.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cezar Cretu price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.9K
75¢
$300
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$136
60¢
$43
55¢
$3.1K
50¢
$10.1K
45¢
$10.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCezar Cretu$10.0K@ 48.7¢
Jeffplatter0xb399…608e
🐋—30 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

JeffplatterCezar Cretu$17.0K
BUY VWAP 50.6¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.