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Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office be at least 26m?

● quote just now
Culture→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $14.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $97.1KEvent: "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 5th Weekend Box Office
0.8¢
YES
99.2¢
NO
1.2¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution76Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 87%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:34 trades$87.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 90%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$29.8K@ 99¢·aviato

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$113
tracked
$87.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $1 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 87% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its 5th weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 28 - 30) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1
6hNO · $113
24hNO · $87.0K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.8¢
VWAP 24h0.8¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d0.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$87.0K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.4K@ 99.2¢
enderone0xab21…c521
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYNO$29.8K@ 99.2¢
aviato0x2a01…6397
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

aviatoNo$52.6K
BUY VWAP 99.2¢·4 fills
denzeldumfriesNo$19.8K
BUY VWAP 99.2¢·6 fills
enderoneNo$14.4K
BUY VWAP 99.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.