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US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $32.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $222.8KEvent: US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov
54.5¢
Jacob Fearnley
45.5¢
Jurij Rodionov
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets27Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:57 trades$77.4K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 58 min agoofficial metadata 11s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jacob Fearnley · $8.6K net·7 wallets·$31.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJacob Fearnley$13.0K@ 56¢·Holtur95

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$3
6h
+$856
tracked
$77.4K

7 verified profitable wallets: Jacob Fearnley · $8.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 58 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-03 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Jurij Rodionov in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Jurij Rodionov. This market will resolve to 'Jurij Rodionov' if Jurij Rodionov advances against Jacob Fearnley. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Jacob Fearnley@ 57.0¢9h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp
Latest book event: Jurij Rodionov DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $76.8K → $11 · 23s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jacob Fearnley; negative values favor Jurij Rodionov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJurij Rodionov · $3
6hJacob Fearnley · $856
24hJacob Fearnley · $20.9K

Jacob Fearnley price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jacob Fearnley price. Jurij Rodionov fills are converted to the complementary Jacob Fearnley probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current54.5¢
VWAP 24h54.2¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d54.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jacob Fearnley price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$5
80¢
$6.6K
75¢
$48
70¢
$9.1K
65¢
$8.4K
60¢
$4.5K
55¢
$14.4K
50¢
← now
$6.9K
45¢
$0
40¢
$10.2K
35¢
$38
30¢
$13.7K
25¢
$3.4K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJacob Fearnley$13.0K@ 55.6¢
Holtur950xc547…c7f0
🐋—about 9 hours ago
SELLJurij Rodionov$12.2K@ 68.0¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYJurij Rodionov$10.0K@ 55.9¢0x5f65…2036🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Holtur95Jacob Fearnley$13.0K
BUY VWAP 55.6¢·1 fill
0x5f65…2036Jurij Rodionov$10.0K
BUY VWAP 55.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.