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Spread: Bears (-0.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $54.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $26.1KEvent: Eagles vs. Bears
35.5¢
Bears
64.5¢
Eagles
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$33.6K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEagles$8.6K@ 65¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$33.6K
tracked
$33.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Eagles · $33.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 4 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 85 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 1 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Eagles".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Eagles and Bears, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 1 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Eagles". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $194.3K gross
mooseborzoi5 linked markets · $58.7K gross
SDTrading3 linked markets · $49.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Eagles@ 65.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bears; negative values favor Eagles. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $0
6hEagles · $33.6K
24hEagles · $33.6K

Bears price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bears price. Eagles fills are converted to the complementary Bears probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current35.5¢
VWAP 24h35.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d35.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bears price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$33.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Eagles vs. Bears
64.5¢$1.1Mpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
46.5¢$320.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
50.5¢$314.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
25.5¢$275.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 57.5
11.5¢$237.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-5.5)
44.5¢$145.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
60.5¢$66.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 41.5
51.5¢$65.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardEagles$33.6K
BUY VWAP 65.0¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.