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Spread: Eagles (-2.5)

● quote 14s ago
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $417.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.7KEvent: Eagles vs. Bears
59.5¢
Eagles
40.5¢
Bears
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$22.6K trackedsource coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Eagles · $23.1K net·2 wallets·$27.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYEagles$7.9K@ 60¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Bears pressure: $2.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.0K
6h
+$14.3K
tracked
$22.6K

2 verified profitable wallets: Eagles · $23.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bears or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Eagles" if the Eagles win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Eagles and Bears, scheduled for September 28 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Eagles" if the Eagles win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
HomeRunHazard9 linked markets · $196.3K gross
mooseborzoi5 linked markets · $67.3K gross
SDTrading3 linked markets · $49.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Eagles; negative values favor Bears. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBears · $2.0K
6hEagles · $14.3K
24hEagles · $14.3K

Eagles price VWAP

Volume-weighted Eagles price. Bears fills are converted to the complementary Eagles probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current59.5¢
VWAP 24h60.3¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d59.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Eagles price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$22.6K
55¢
← now
$12.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Eagles vs. Bears
64.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)
46.5¢$320.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
49.5¢$295.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-3.5)
25.5¢$273.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 57.5
11.5¢$237.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Eagles (-5.5)
44.5¢$145.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Eagles vs. Bears: O/U 41.5
51.5¢$65.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Bears (-0.5)
35.5¢$26.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardEagles$20.3K
BUY VWAP 59.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.