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Spread: Broncos (-2.5)

Sports→Settlement: BroncosLiquidity: $231.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.2MEvent: Jaguars vs. Broncos
100.0¢
Broncos payout
0.0¢
Jaguars payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:64 trades$411.3K tracked17% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 591 min agoofficial metadata 531 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jaguars · $15.0K net·2 wallets·$15.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJaguars$99.2K@ 49¢·raybanman

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Broncos. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 20:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jaguars".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Jaguars and Broncos, scheduled for September 20 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Broncos" if the Broncos win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Jaguars". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $173.0K gross
RN17 linked markets · $52.2K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $44.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Jaguars@ 49.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Broncos@ 52.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY Broncos@ 52.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Broncos@ 52.0¢17h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Jaguars UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $1.6K → $256 · 79s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Broncos; negative values favor Jaguars. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJaguars · $2.9K
6hJaguars · $28.3K
24hBroncos · $130.7K

Broncos price VWAP

Volume-weighted Broncos price. Jaguars fills are converted to the complementary Broncos probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h52.1¢▲ above by 47.9pp
VWAP 7d52.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Broncos price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$3
70¢
$6
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$646.9K
45¢
$428
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$1.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$38
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$12
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJaguars$20.6K@ 49.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—about 15 hours ago
BUYBroncos$41.6K@ 52.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$41.6K@ 52.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$41.6K@ 52.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$41.6K@ 52.0¢
weflyhigh0x03e8…1697
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$29.6K@ 52.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$26.6K@ 52.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$29.6K@ 52.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$29.6K@ 52.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$29.6K@ 52.0¢
DimSumConnoisseur.0xe3c9…4b9c
🐋—about 17 hours ago
BUYBroncos$31.1K@ 52.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 21 hours ago
BUYJaguars$51.5K@ 49.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—1 day ago
BUYJaguars$11.9K@ 49.0¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—1 day ago
BUYJaguars$99.2K@ 48.6¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBroncos$15.1K@ 52.0¢
maz260x6754…e3bc
🐋—1 day ago
BUYJaguars$16.9K@ 48.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—1 day ago
BUYBroncos$19.7K@ 53.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

weflyhighBroncos$166.4K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·4 fills
raybanmanJaguars$162.5K
BUY VWAP 48.7¢·3 fills
DimSumConnoisseur.Broncos$148.2K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·6 fills
SDTradingBroncos$31.1K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rJaguars$28.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·3 fills
maz26Jaguars$20.6K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
ic4creamBroncos$19.7K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
maz26Broncos$15.1K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.