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US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $102.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $508.9KEvent: US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic
42.5¢
Mariano Navone
57.5¢
Novak Djokovic
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection18Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets68Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority66Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 97%💡 21 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:281 trades$445.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 88%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Novak Djokovic · $110.8K net·21 wallets(2🐋)·$162.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNovak Djokovic$31.4K@ 84¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Novak Djokovic SETUP
What the tape says

Novak Djokovic pressure: $80.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$80.1K
6h
−$183.4K
tracked
$445.8K

21 verified profitable wallets: Novak Djokovic · $110.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 97% · priority 66

Since latest large flow: +2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Novak Djokovic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Novak Djokovic in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Novak Djokovic. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Mariano Navone. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
NiNo9992 linked markets · $49.4K gross
0xbbf3…aa3a2 linked markets · $2.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Novak Djokovic41m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Novak Djokovic@ 56.0¢44m ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Novak Djokovic@ 78.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Mariano Navone@ 23.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +12.0pp
Latest book event: Novak Djokovic UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.7K → $2.0K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mariano Navone; negative values favor Novak Djokovic. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNovak Djokovic · $80.1K
6hNovak Djokovic · $183.4K
24hNovak Djokovic · $198.3K

Mariano Navone price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mariano Navone price. Novak Djokovic fills are converted to the complementary Mariano Navone probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h28.9¢▲ above by 13.6pp
VWAP 7d28.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mariano Navone price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$9.6K
45¢
$104.1K
40¢
← now
$9.3K
35¢
$43.8K
30¢
$27.2K
25¢
$69.1K
20¢
$11.3K
15¢
$124.5K
10¢
$36.7K
5¢
$10.3K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNovak Djokovic$14.7K@ 54.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$11.9K@ 53.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$18.5K@ 73.0¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$12.3K@ 85.0¢
beeemw0x1e38…fd47
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$16.4K@ 84.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$31.4K@ 84.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$12.0K@ 84.6¢
dirss0x1385…db91
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Novak Djokovic$47.8K
BUY VWAP 84.0¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Novak Djokovic$43.2K
BUY VWAP 57.9¢·6 fills
NiNo999Mariano Navone$25.3K
BUY VWAP 13.1¢·6 fills
HVABNovak Djokovic$18.5K
BUY VWAP 73.0¢·1 fill
007theone1Mariano Navone$16.2K
BUY VWAP 48.1¢·2 fills
flatbarrelNovak Djokovic$13.8K
BUY VWAP 66.2¢·2 fills
beeemwNovak Djokovic$12.3K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·1 fill
FlaznorpNovak Djokovic$12.3K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·5 fills
dirssNovak Djokovic$12.0K
BUY VWAP 84.6¢·1 fill
degenfrenMariano Navone$10.2K
BUY VWAP 39.2¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.