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Set Handicap: Tirante (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)

● quote 20s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $16.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3KEvent: US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino
25.5¢
Tirante
74.5¢
Mannarino
11.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution12Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:3 trades$25.5K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 171 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTirante$15.0K@ 59¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$22.3K
tracked
$25.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
11.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 171 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 11.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tirante" if Thiago Agustin Tirante wins by 2 or more sets than Adrian Mannarino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Mannarino."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Thiago Agustin Tirante can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Mannarino."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Adrian Mannarino in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tirante" if Thiago Agustin Tirante wins by 2 or more sets than Adrian Mannarino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Mannarino." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Thiago Agustin Tirante can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Mannarino." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tirante; negative values favor Mannarino. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTirante · $0
6hTirante · $22.3K
24hTirante · $22.3K

Tirante price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tirante price. Mannarino fills are converted to the complementary Tirante probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current25.5¢
VWAP 24h59.3¢▼ below by 33.8pp
VWAP 7d59.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tirante price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$8.9K
55¢
$16.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTirante$15.0K@ 59.1¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Tirante$23.9K
BUY VWAP 59.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.