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Set Handicap: Michelsen (-1.5) vs Cina (+1.5)

● quote 33s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $17.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $112Event: US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Federico Cina
70.0¢
Michelsen
34.0¢
Cina
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution12Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:2 trades$26.1K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 37 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMichelsen$25.0K@ 71¢·NiNo999

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Cina pressure: $1.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
+$23.9K
tracked
$26.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 37 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cina or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-06 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Michelsen" if Alex Michelsen wins by 2 or more sets than Federico Cina, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Cina."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alex Michelsen can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Cina."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Federico Cina in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Michelsen" if Alex Michelsen wins by 2 or more sets than Federico Cina, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Cina." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alex Michelsen can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Cina." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Michelsen; negative values favor Cina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCina · $1.1K
6hMichelsen · $23.9K
24hMichelsen · $23.9K

Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Michelsen price. Cina fills are converted to the complementary Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.0¢
VWAP 24h70.9¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d70.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$25.0K
65¢
$1.1K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMichelsen$25.0K@ 71.0¢
NiNo9990xcd65…ee96
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

NiNo999Michelsen$25.0K
BUY VWAP 71.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.