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Ethereum Up or Down on August 31?

● quote just now
Crypto→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $14.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.5KEvent: Ethereum Up or Down on August 31?
6.3¢
Up
93.7¢
Down
2.4¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$10.0K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$3.7K@ 87¢·0x06dc…4524

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$17
6h
−$3.7K
tracked
$10.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Up · $2.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.4¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 31 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 31 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Down UP 9.5pp · near-book depth $439 → $975 · 119s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUp · $17
6hDown · $3.7K
24hDown · $1.7K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.3¢
VWAP 24h39.8¢▼ below by 33.5pp
VWAP 7d39.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.8K
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$4
20¢
$0
15¢
$174
10¢
$5.7K
5¢
← now
$1
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.