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Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 1 minuteLiquidity: $159.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $171.1KEvent: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
41.5¢
Chicago Cubs
58.5¢
Cincinnati Reds
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets86Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 81%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$110.2K tracked15% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 30s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Chicago Cubs · $25.6K net·3 wallets·$29.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCincinnati Reds$61.7K@ 59¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Cincinnati Reds SETUP
What the tape says

Cincinnati Reds pressure: $6.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.4K
6h
−$48.0K
tracked
$110.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Chicago Cubs · $25.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 81% · priority 65

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Cincinnati Reds or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-30 23:20 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 2 or more runs.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for August 30 at 7:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $145.8K gross
SDTrading2 linked markets · $47.2K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $17.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 60.0¢11m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Cincinnati Reds@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Chicago Cubs; negative values favor Cincinnati Reds. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCincinnati Reds · $6.4K
6hCincinnati Reds · $48.0K
24hCincinnati Reds · $45.1K

Chicago Cubs price VWAP

Volume-weighted Chicago Cubs price. Cincinnati Reds fills are converted to the complementary Chicago Cubs probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h41.1¢▲ above by 0.4pp
VWAP 7d41.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Chicago Cubs price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$110.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCincinnati Reds$13.9K@ 59.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYCincinnati Reds$61.7K@ 59.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafCincinnati Reds$75.6K
BUY VWAP 59.0¢·2 fills
SDTradingChicago Cubs$11.3K
BUY VWAP 41.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.