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Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $3.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $427.0KEvent: Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)
80.5¢
Tim Elliott
19.5¢
Édgar Cháirez
5.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection40Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution27Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 93%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:159 trades$301.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 70%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Édgar Cháirez · $1.1K net·9 wallets·$5.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYÉdgar Cháirez$94.5K@ 63¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Édgar Cháirez pressure: $119.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$119.3K
6h
−$121.2K
tracked
$301.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Édgar Cháirez · $1.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
5.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 93% · priority 47

Since latest position change: +4.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 5.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Édgar Cháirez or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Édgar Cháirez at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Édgar Cháirez" if Édgar Cháirez is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Édgar Cháirez at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will resolve to "Édgar Cháirez" if Édgar Cháirez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Tim Elliott@ 79.0¢4m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Édgar Cháirez@ 85.0¢13m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Édgar Cháirez@ 84.0¢13m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Édgar Cháirez@ 63.0¢52m ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Édgar Cháirez DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $447 → $53 · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tim Elliott; negative values favor Édgar Cháirez. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hÉdgar Cháirez · $119.3K
6hÉdgar Cháirez · $121.2K
24hÉdgar Cháirez · $121.2K

Tim Elliott price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tim Elliott price. Édgar Cháirez fills are converted to the complementary Tim Elliott probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current80.5¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▲ above by 41.2pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tim Elliott price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
← now
$1.0K
75¢
$17.7K
70¢
$4.1K
65¢
$0
60¢
$176
55¢
$715
50¢
$4.5K
45¢
$2.9K
40¢
$27
35¢
$266.5K
30¢
$3.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$1.5K
5¢
$1.9K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTim Elliott$15.2K@ 78.0¢
bobe20xed10…d2e5
🐋—4 minutes ago
BUYÉdgar Cháirez$12.8K@ 64.0¢
surfandturf0x9f2f…2ca8
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYÉdgar Cháirez$55.5K@ 63.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—17 minutes ago
BUYÉdgar Cháirez$94.5K@ 63.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTim Elliott$18.2K@ 36.4¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYTim Elliott$17.7K@ 35.0¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYÉdgar Cháirez$30.1K@ 65.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketÉdgar Cháirez$180.1K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·3 fills
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rTim Elliott$37.1K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·4 fills
Talvez10Tim Elliott$18.2K
BUY VWAP 36.4¢·1 fill
bobe2Tim Elliott$17.7K
BUY VWAP 77.9¢·2 fills
surfandturfÉdgar Cháirez$12.8K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.