Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $25.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $89.8KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 2?

11.5¢

88.5¢

Down

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection17Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 80%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:44 trades$19.5K trackedsource coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 2 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Down · $1.4K net·2 wallets·$1.4K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDown$6.2K@ 88¢·0x1683…eb7f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Up SETUP

What the tape says

Up pressure: $3.4K net directional flow in 1h.

+$3.4K

+$3.7K

tracked

$19.5K

2 verified profitable wallets: Down · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 80% · priority 61

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Up or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-09-02 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hUp · $3.4K

6hUp · $3.7K

24hUp · $1.1K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current11.5¢

VWAP 24h20.9¢▼ below by 9.4pp

VWAP 7d20.9¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

$321

35¢

$3.3K

30¢

$2.2K

25¢

$136

20¢

$2.8K

15¢

$1.3K

10¢

← now

$7.8K

5¢

$1.5K

0¢

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.