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Central Connecticut State vs. Toledo

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $34.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $101.2KEvent: Central Connecticut State vs. Toledo
0.9¢
Central Connecticut State
99.1¢
Toledo
1.9¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%
24h sample:1 trades$98.2K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 97%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 152 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToledo$98.2K@ 98¢·User1244322

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$98.2K
tracked
$98.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.9¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 152 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Central Connecticut State" if Central Connecticut State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Central Connecticut State and Toledo, scheduled for September 12 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Central Connecticut State" if Central Connecticut State win the game. This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Central Connecticut State; negative values favor Toledo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCentral Connecticut State · $0
6hToledo · $98.2K
24hToledo · $98.2K

Central Connecticut State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Central Connecticut State price. Toledo fills are converted to the complementary Central Connecticut State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.9¢
VWAP 24h1.8¢▼ below by 0.8pp
VWAP 7d1.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Central Connecticut State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$98.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYToledo$98.2K@ 98.2¢
User12443220xe558…dcd2
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

User1244322Toledo$98.2K
BUY VWAP 98.2¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.