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UNLV vs. North Texas

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $59.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $289.8KEvent: UNLV vs. North Texas
23.5¢
UNLV
76.5¢
North Texas
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$134.6K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:North Texas · $39.7K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$39.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUNLV$57.6K@ 58¢·Sassy-Bucket

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

North Texas pressure: $4.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.8K
6h
+$12.0K
tracked
$134.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: North Texas · $39.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 77% · priority 63

Since latest large flow: +35.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 35.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from North Texas or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game.

•This market will resolve to "North Texas" if North Texas win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between UNLV and North Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 3:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "UNLV" if UNLV win the game. This market will resolve to "North Texas" if North Texas win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY North Texas@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +13.0pp
Latest book event: UNLV DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $3.8K → $1.4K · 91s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UNLV; negative values favor North Texas. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNorth Texas · $4.8K
6hUNLV · $12.0K
24hUNLV · $15.0K

UNLV price VWAP

Volume-weighted UNLV price. North Texas fills are converted to the complementary UNLV probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.5¢
VWAP 24h57.0¢▼ below by 33.5pp
VWAP 7d57.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UNLV price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$6.1K
55¢
$126.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$43
35¢
$3.0K
30¢
$2
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$1.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUNLV$57.6K@ 58.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUNLV$12.9K@ 57.0¢
Sassy-Bucket0x4bff…fc26
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNorth Texas$12.1K@ 42.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Sassy-BucketUNLV$71.7K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·3 fills
HomeRunHazardNorth Texas$16.1K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·3 fills
ferrariChampions2026North Texas$12.1K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.