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Spread: Texas (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $139.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.6KEvent: Ohio State vs. Texas
51.5¢
Texas
48.5¢
Ohio State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:4 trades$40.2K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 147 min agoofficial metadata 16s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas$38.1K@ 52¢·SS787878

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$38.1K
tracked
$40.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 147 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-12 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ohio State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Ohio State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Texas@ 52.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Texas; negative values favor Ohio State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTexas · $0
6hTexas · $38.1K
24hTexas · $40.1K

Texas price VWAP

Volume-weighted Texas price. Ohio State fills are converted to the complementary Texas probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.7¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d51.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Texas price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$40.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas$38.1K@ 51.7¢
SS7878780xdd7e…0be3
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SS787878Texas$38.1K
BUY VWAP 51.7¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.