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Montana State vs. Nevada

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 18 minutesLiquidity: $207.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.9KEvent: Montana State vs. Nevada
65.5¢
Montana State
34.5¢
Nevada
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets25Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$34.0K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNevada$12.3K@ 35¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Montana State pressure: $3.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.2K
6h
−$2.3K
tracked
$34.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Montana State · $5.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 51

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Montana State or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-13 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Montana State" if Montana State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Nevada" if Nevada win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Montana State and Nevada, scheduled for September 12 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Montana State" if Montana State win the game. This market will resolve to "Nevada" if Nevada win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Montana State; negative values favor Nevada. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMontana State · $3.2K
6hNevada · $2.3K
24hMontana State · $7.8K

Montana State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Montana State price. Nevada fills are converted to the complementary Montana State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current65.5¢
VWAP 24h65.3¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d65.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Montana State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$28.0K
60¢
$6.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNevada$12.3K@ 35.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingNevada$12.3K
BUY VWAP 35.0¢·1 fill
VigorishVaultMontana State$10.3K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.