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US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $121.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.8KEvent: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo
39.5¢
Alexei Popyrin
60.5¢
Alejandro Tabilo
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$46.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 52 min agoofficial metadata 41s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alejandro Tabilo · $20.7K net·6 wallets·$25.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlejandro Tabilo$11.6K@ 58¢·fastball67

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$30
6h
−$4.6K
tracked
$46.3K

6 verified profitable wallets: Alejandro Tabilo · $20.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 52 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-09 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Alejandro Tabilo. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Alexei Popyrin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexei Popyrin; negative values favor Alejandro Tabilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexei Popyrin · $30
6hAlejandro Tabilo · $4.6K
24hAlejandro Tabilo · $37.8K

Alexei Popyrin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexei Popyrin price. Alejandro Tabilo fills are converted to the complementary Alexei Popyrin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h41.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d41.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexei Popyrin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$48.5K
35¢
← now
$10
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlejandro Tabilo$11.6K@ 58.0¢
fastball670x45e4…7e20
🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fastball67Alejandro Tabilo$11.6K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Alejandro Tabilo$11.0K
BUY VWAP 58.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.