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Villarreal CF vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 14 minutesLiquidity: $68.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.9KEvent: Villarreal CF vs. Real Betis Balompié - More Markets
19.5¢
Over
80.5¢
Under
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection44Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:4 trades$34.3K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$19.3K@ 75¢·iooojk

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $15.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.0K
6h
−$34.3K
tracked
$34.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 55

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.laliga.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Villarreal CF and Real Betis Balompié combine to score 5 or more goals in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming La Liga game between Villarreal CF and Real Betis Balompié, scheduled for September 14 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Villarreal CF and Real Betis Balompié combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on laliga.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
iooojk2 linked markets · $59.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Under UP 22.5pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $65 · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $15.0K
6hUnder · $34.3K
24hUnder · $34.3K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current19.5¢
VWAP 24h25.4¢▼ below by 5.9pp
VWAP 7d25.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$34.3K
20¢
$12
15¢
← now
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$15.0K@ 74.0¢
iooojk0x4b99…bad3
🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYUnder$19.3K@ 75.0¢
iooojk0x4b99…bad3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

iooojkUnder$34.3K
BUY VWAP 74.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.